Vermont Businesses Blame it On The Rain

All eyes are on Florida as a Tropical Storm Fay inches towards the Keys, but it doesn't take a hurricane to interrupt business. Vermont has been hit with severely wet weather lately, causing not only flooding, but lost profits for some businesses. July's heavy rainfall broke records in Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, making it one of the wettest months in history for the two cities. During the week of July 21st alone, Montpelier received 2.9 inches and St. Johnsbury received 3.56 inches of rain, both thirty year records for that date, according to WeatherBill's database. All that rain is taking a toll on Vermont's logging, agriculture, and tourism industries.

Logging employs roughly 1,200 people in the state and contributes $1.2 billion annually to Vermont's GDP, according to an August 13th article by Peter Hirschfield in The Barre Montpelier Times-Argus. But loggers cannot work in a soaked forest because in wet conditions their machinery can erode the land and damage the root systems of trees. The logging delays are lost money not only for loggers, but also sawmills and log truckers. Vermont sawmills depend almost entirely on the state's log production to keep their mills running and high gas prices make it impossible to import lumber from other states to make up the difference, said Frank Cecot of Mill River Lumber, according to Hirschfield's article.

Hay growers are also facing rain delays, as the wet weather prevents them from harvesting their crop at its peak. Hay needs 2 or 3 days of dry weather in order for it to be harvested and preserved properly, according to farmer Sam Lincoln as reported by New England Cable News. Too much rain also washes out the nutrients, meaning that mature hay that has to be harvested after several days of rain will be less valuable as animal feed, which is worrying for growers and livestock owners alike.

Summer tourism in Vermont depends heavily on outdoor activities like hiking, golf, and fishing, all of which can be negatively impacted by too much rain. Parks and beach-front reservoirs are feeling the weather's effects, with a severe drop in the numbers of people fishing, kayaking, and spending time on the beach, according to an August 13th article by Thatcher Moats in The Barre Montpelier Times-Argus. And even when the downpour stops for a day or two, outdoor recreation can still be hampered by the mud and debris that the rain leaves behind. Muddy hiking trails are a big problem, according to a report by Kate Duffy of WCAX news, forcing some state parks to close some trails out of fear that hikers looking to avoid the sludge will go off the trails and cause long-term damage in the area.

- Thanks to Sarah Garrigan for all her help this summer with the blog! We are going to miss her creativity and enthusiasm for writing about weather. We wish her the best at Berkeley where, in her senior year, she is working hard to figure out "What Do You Do With A BA in English?" We know she's going to be great at anything she puts her mind to!

High Priced Beverages: Unfortunately, This is Your Cup of Tea... or Coffee

Recent weather events across Africa have been bad news for tea and coffee addicts. In Kenya, frost and dry weather has caused the country's tea output to fall by 21 percent during the first six months of 2008, causing price increases of 10 to 25 U.S. cents per kilo, according to an August 6 Reuters article. Bloomberg reported today that at $2.68 a kilogram, Kenyan tea was the most expensive African tea at a weekly tea auction in Mombasa featuring tea from most African producers (with the exception of South Africa and countries in west Africa).

The price increases coincided with an announcement that the Kenyan government will give its tea and coffee boards more money this fiscal year, increasing the tea board's budget by 62 million shillings and the coffee board's by 110 million shillings, according to Reuters. In neighboring Uganda, tea production has fallen by 10 percent since January, also driven by drought. Tea production is not a large part of Uganda's agricultural output, but coffee is its largest export, and a new report by British charity Oxfam warns that growing conditions for the plant will deteriorate as temperatures rise due to global warming. Oxfam predicts that if average global temperatures rise by two degrees or more, most of Uganda will be unable to produce coffee. It predicts that this change could happen in as few as 30 years.

Sunshine Guarantee Success

Exciting news today about Priceline's Sunshine Guarantee. There's new evidence that the promotion is resonating with Priceline customers.

"While the Sunshine Guarantee promotion may attract only a niche audience (0.2% of Priceline shoppers), those who do click on this promotion are highly likely to convert – an impressive 24% of Sunshine clickers will complete a booking."

That was written by Andy Kazenlac of Compete.com, a web analytics company that studies the online habits of more than two million US internet users. Compete uses that data to assist companies in their marketing strategy.

Kazenlac provides a graph that illustrates Priceline's conversion rate of promotional clickers versus the conversion rate of all shoppers:


(click image to view detail)

Kazenlac writes that "promotional Clickers on Priceline, those who engage with some kind of promotional content while on the site, have an exceptional conversion rate of 13%, nearly twice the OTA average (blue bars)." To read the full post, click here.

Vacations refunded "thanks" to extreme weather

We are excited to see so many Priceline customers being refunded for too much rain on their vacations. Hundreds of refunds have been issued since the promotion began. Turns out the majority of those refunds are being caused by extreme weather events.

Tropical Storm Cristobal is the culprit for several of the rained-out vacations up the East Coast. Cristobal started spinning off Florida coast on Saturday, July 19th, according to NOAA (see the map above, courtesy the Associated Press). The storm never made landfall, but bands of rain swept inland. As the storm approached, Priceline vacationers in Orlando, FL had more than 0.50 inches for four days between July 11th and July 16th. Vacationers in Raleigh, NC were refunded after 0.60 inches of rain fell on July 18th and 0.80 inches fell on the 19th. Then the storm headed North, dumping 1.09 inches of rain on New York, NY on July 24th and causing Priceline vacationers to get a free trip.

Another extreme weather event, monsoon, is causing rain refunds in the desert. On July 13th a vacation in Phoenix, AZ was refunded after a subtropical disturbance caused 1.3 inches to fall on a single day. Just goes to show that rain coverage in the desert isn't as crazy of an idea as many would think.

"The monsoon is one of the least understood weather phenomena in the United States," writes Robert Roy Britt of LiveScience. Meteorologists know what causes it: a seasonal shift in wind from Mexico that brings heavy rain to Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. The confusion is over the term "monsoon." Britt writes that "monsoon" does not refer to a single storm. The term instead refers to a season, therefore making "monsoon season" redundant. The monsoon officially starts in the United States' Southwest on June 15th and ends September 30th.

Edouard = Continental Airfare Refund

Tropical storm Edouard is threatening tourism on the Texas coast, which has yet to fully recover from last week's Hurricane Dolly. Cities like the island of Galveston, which frequently doubles its 60,000 population during the summer tourist season according to an article by The Associated Press, are expected to feel the effects of the storm tomorrow morning. Though there is no evacuation order in place because Edouard is not expected to cause major damage, the winds and rain could confine vacationers to their hotel rooms for the next couple of days, hurting business for Galveston's large network of fishing and party boats, golf courses, and beach facilities.

Edouard is also an issue for travel providers like Houston-based Continental Airlines, which is offering its customers free rescheduling of flights to and from affected airports and refunds on canceled flights, according to an article in The Houston Business Journal.

For travelers who still want to book a vacation on the Gulf Coast but are worried about being rained out due to tropical storms, leading online travel company Priceline has again teamed up with WeatherBill to offer late summer and fall Sunshine Guaranteed vacation packages. With Sunshine Guaranteed packages, the cost of airfare, hotel, rental car and attractions and service components is refunded if it rains more than 0.50 of an inch on half or more of your vacation days. Over 100 destinations qualify for the package, including many in hurricane-prone areas like Houston, New Orleans, Jamaica, and Hawaii. The last Sunshine Guaranteed promotion earlier this summer refunded almost 200 vacation packages for customers. For more information, please visit Priceline's website.

Not a good weekend for horse racing

The last drops of Hurricane Dolly wrung out over Ruidoso Downs in Texas yesterday, canceling Sunday races. The Associated Press writes that the Ruidoso track "flooded two years ago, but ... this time is far worse, with water 'in places that it's not even thought of going two years ago.'"

Races were rescheduled for next weekend but the trainer of a promising horse, Peppers Pride, said the mare might not run because of the lack of training facilities. "The race track is a river. I've never seen it like this here," he told the AP.

Monmouth Park Racetrack in Oceanport, New Jersey, cancelled live racing after their 5th race of the day on Sunday due to heavy rain and lightning. The 5,393 fans can now bring their programs back for any live racing date for free admission.

The 140th opening at Saratoga Springs Racetrack in New York was also ruined by rain. Attendance was 18,127, "compared with 30,052 who attended last year's opening day, run under pristine conditions" according to ESPN. According to the article, "Saratoga's main track was labeled sloppy for all 10 races, and all five turf races were transferred to the main track. Last year, the main track was never labeled sloppy and only six races all meet long were moved from the turf to the dirt."

Some food for thought... Horse racing events can be covered from too much rain with custom hourly coverage. Major events and special race events may want to consider a full day of coverage because morning rain can keep spectators away. Tracks can also offer weather refunds on their tickets.

It looks like heat is going to be an issue for riders and horses at this year's Summer Olympics. CNN explains what they're doing to beat the heat.

Extreme temperatures contribute to hospital debt

Managing bad-debt is a challenge many hospitals in the United States are facing. The American Hospital Association (AHA) defines "bad-debt" as a hospital's total cost of unreimbursed care to uninsured individuals. A study released this month by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) shows that extreme temperatures are contributing to hospital debt.

There were an estimated 12,700 hospitalizations in the U.S. for extreme heat or cold illnesses in 2005, according to the AHRQ study. The total cost of those visits was $120 million. The percentage of uninsured individuals suffering from extreme temperatures was much higher compared to non-weather-related ailments. One of the main reasons for the disproportion was that the majority of uninsured patients were from the poorest communities with little access to home heating and cooling. Patients from rural communities were 2 to 2.5 times more likely to be hospitalized for temperature-related illness than those in the wealthiest.

Ailments connected to cold were far more expensive than regular hospital visits; costing an average of $12,500 per visit compared to $8,100 for all other hospital stays. The higher cost was mainly because patients with cold-related illnesses tended to spend twice as long in the hospital as those suffering from heat. Treatment for heat-based ailments cost about $6,200 per visit.

The AHRQ's study was based on data from community hospitals (short-term, non-Federal, and general hospitals, excluding hospitals from other institutions such as prisons). Estimates were based upon data from the Health Care Cost and Utilization Project's 2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS).

Hospitals can manage their temperature-related debt by creating coverage against extreme summer heat and winter cold. The payouts can help cover the debt incurred by uninsured individuals.